Economics is the most important subject in the lives of individual, companies and countries. A ton of economic reports get released daily for the consumption of the markets. Some of these economic reports have the potential of moving the markets in a big way. For some forex, futures and options traders, trading these economic reports is a way of life. Each market has got its own favorite reports. But some reports have the potential of moving almost all the markets.
Now when these economic reports are released, market compares the expected with the unexpected. The more these reports have the element of the unexpected, the more the markets become nervous. So, if you are a news trader or an economic report trader, you need to watch CNBC and Bloomberg constantly to know what the market is expecting. The most market moving reports are the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, The Consumer and the Producer Price Index, The Gross Domestic Product (GDP). the monthly Employment Reports or what you call the NFP Report, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Now as said before if these reports have no surprise for the markets, nothing will happen. But in case if there is a surprise, markets can turn upside down in matter of minutes!
As a trader, your world is highly dependent on the economic calendar. Economic calendar is the listing of dates when these important reports are released each month. Each month, these reports are released by different government agencies and the private sector. These reports are a major influence on how the financial markets move in general plus a source of the repetitiveness in the markets.
Not all reports are created equal. Some economic reports have more influence on the market than others. The most important reports that tend to move the markets a lot are the employment report, the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes.
Now, Non Farm Payroll Report or what you call the NFP Report is the most market moving report in the recent times. This report is released by the US DOL (Department of Labor) and it gives the state of employment in the economy during the last month period. It is released on the first Friday of each month exactly at 8:30 AM EST. There are NFP Report Traders who easily make 150-200 pips at this time within minutes.
Now as said before, the market reaction is dependent on how muc surprise there is in the report. If there is no element of unexpected in the report, the market may react mildly. But if there is a big surprise in the report that the market did not anticipate, markets can be volatile for hours or even days before the importance of the surprise is digested by the market. These types of reports can also start a news trend in the market that might last for quite sometime!
The NFP Report becomes very important when the economy is shifting gears like the present when the US economy is coming out of recession. Market tends to develop an expectation about the employment figures and if the NFP report does not confirm with that expectation, it can make the market jittery for sometime before the importance of the release is digested by the market. Trader use the NFP report as one of the several important clues to predict the future of the interest rates.
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